Imperfect world of George Soros

George Soros says that he has a great intellectual influence was Isaiah Berlin (Isaiah Berlin). So it makes sense to look at the world through glasses Soros the philosopher, who was born in Riga, who shared the world of foxes and hedgehogs. In his public life Soros- fox-minded. His success as the founder of an investment fund based on the ability to do daily billionaire set rates.

In his charity Soros- as the fox ; as part of its fund “Open Society” it supports dozens of organizations and initiatives in many countries.

But intellectually Soros is more like a narrow-minded hedgehog. He’s half-century-plus reflects on different variations of the same big idea, developing it, distributing and promoting. Today he presents the central thought of this idea as follows: ” The importance of imperfect understanding how motivational forces or determinants of history.”

Soros works on this subject, to which he devoted a lot of time, sometimes cause confusion, though his financial acumen and charity the whole world admires. But according to Soros, the important idea of his numerous public initiatives are closely linked. He believes that it is through this intellectual concept, he succeeds in everything else. Fortunately Soros, after many years of struggle for recognition as a public intellectual chaos in the world economy finally forced us to listen more attentively to his ideas.

“Today’s moment- is a compelling illustration ” of how imperfect understanding generates adverse effects and results, Soros told me when I took his recent interview with Foreign Policy. ” We’ve had 25 years superbuma which alternated financial crises. Each time the authorities intervened, increasing loans and leveraged long until it became unbearable. Then we came the collapse in 2008, when the financial system essentially collapsed and had to resuscitate. And these CPR is to replace public credit financial loans, which in itself is not credible. ”

Soros sees this cycle of ups and downs confirmation of his theory in the real world. This is an example of how wrong ideas shape the course of events. ” Everything happened because of the false dogma, which states that financial markets tend towards equilibrium.”

Of course, at the heart of a big idea Soros lies a contradiction. He is absolutely, completely and utterly adamantly convinced that all our knowledge of the world are imperfect. He knows exactly what to know something for sure we will not ever.

In real life cruelly Soros applies his theory of imperfect knowledge to himself. His business partners say that the investment genius Soros- this is not some kind of infallible foresight, by which he always sells well. But he knows when mistaken- and minimizes losses. He also knows when the right- and at this point plays big.

Soros gets great pleasure from the fact that notices own mistakes. ” In 1997 I thought that global capitalism is unsustainable- it reminds me.- Nevertheless, he lasted another 11 years ! ”

Understanding the variability and uncertainty Soros explains to the children and youth experience, when the world is undergoing a period of massive change. When he was 13 years old and he was the youngest child in a wealthy family, who lived in Hungary, the country was invaded by the Nazis. Soros’s family survived, and George realized the need to adapt to revolutionary changes. ” I have been given advice and guidance father, who was a prisoner of war in Russia during World War I and a lot of experienced,- he said.- I knew the story of his family in troubled times. And it gave me a personal advantage, allowing to find a way out far from equilibrium situations. ”

Soros for decades defended their ideas publicly. However, he said, ” from my ideas simply dismissed, considering their whim successful stock speculator.” With the onset of the financial crisis, which was a clear example of his theory of imperfect knowledge, Soros is highly respected as a thinker. ” With the advent of the crisis, people began to recognize the value of greater understanding of the role of imperfect knowledge,”- he said.

Of course, Soros is not limited to the narrow limits of his world of abstractions. He is well known for its exceptionally liberal political views, and he loves to be wedged in debates on public policy around the world, especially when it considers that it is possible to apply the concept of imperfect knowledge, or when at stake are values ??of open society.

{3 lately} he most busy European Union. There he this year promoting his heretical idea that Germany should “either lead, or leave.” This- a brief summary of Soros idea that Germany should either accept the burden of leadership in the EU, providing financial support to weaker states and assuming that inflation, which need their economies, or exit from the eurozone, these countries have created such conditions for themselves. Until Germany is neither the first nor the second way, but the idea of ??Soros attracted the attention of the European elite and European society as a whole, which largely determines the direction of the debate.

Soon Soros may be in the media spotlight due with China. And China experts, and international investors recognize that the export-oriented economy of the country and economic problem of enormous political significance is the shift to greater domestic consumption. And Soros believes that China make such a transition will be more difficult than expected.

“China tremendously benefited from globalization, and now he is- at the end of the path within the same development model, which is used. This model is based on exports and investment, “- he said in an interview, expressing more pessimism about this second world economy, rather than the bulk of the supporters of the conventional wisdom on Wall Street.

” The share of consumption is only one-third GDP, which is almost the limit allowable- said Soros.- So they have to change this situation. But the road will not be easy, potholes and bumps will be many, and the landing would be tough. To increase consumption, it is necessary to increase the family income. But the economic downturn generates unemployment and people are scared, and hence- and their desire to save more and save. So there is a decrease in all three segments : exports, investment, consumption. ”

One of the intelligent features of mind Soros- is his ability to quickly pick up who will win at such and such a scenario. This is a useful property of the mind, when you lead a hedge fund. It is also very Eastern European way of thinking. It is well known that Vladimir Lenin argued that the key question of any political agenda- a matter of ” who wins.”

This is how Soros applies this concept to the political economy of China. “An important trick to help maintain economic growth- is the low rate of the Chinese currency, which was equivalent to the tax on Chinese labor,- he says.- But people do not feel that they are taxed. And as the economy developed rapidly, although the earnings of workers remained low in a period of rapid growth were all happy. ”

At this time, the winner was the elite of the Communist Party, whose members received personal benefits, and the economy at this rapidly growing. But with the beginning of the recession such political dynamics terminates emphasizes Soros, ” as significantly reduced the readiness and willingness of people to put up with a regime that is dictatorial.”

Soros predicts that as a result there will be conflicts and crises. “An important question for China and for the world is how will this problem be solved : through the development of democracy, or by increasing repression- said the billionaire.- I very much hope that this will lead to the strengthening of democracy and the establishment of a more equitable social system, in which the proportion of m
anagers will be less. But the ruling class rarely abandons its benefits and privileges voluntarily, so that the conflict in society will surely like the economic crisis. ”

That changeable future that Soros predicts China is a very comfortable environment for both Soros activist and for the Soros- thinker. Soros feels like a fish in water, balancing in his public life and the fox in their tight intellectual classes. ” Doing business is necessary to provide food for thought”- he says.

But Soros did not hesitate to call the work that he valued above all else. She- not to make a fortune, although he did it many times, and to maintain an open society, although he personally invested in this case about $ 8 billion. The main thing- it’s a great idea to offer.

” I am most interested in and takes the most effort to understand the human contradiction, consisting in the fact that we are born into a world that can not fully understand,”- he says.

Author: Christia Freeland (“Foreign Policy”, USA)

Source: InoSMI.Ru