Ukrainians live with the crisis for another two years

ukrainian-crysis Ukraine has never been a thing in itself. USSR tightly bound us closer economic ties with Russia and other Soviet republics, and power Ukrainian metallurgists and chemists made ??us a piece of the puzzle called the global economy. As a result of this integration economic crisis rather quickly reached full swing here in Ukraine and hosts.

To understand how long we have to suffer with you, “Today” has tried to analyze the economic situation in the countries that have a significant impact on the economy of Ukraine (United States, European Union, Russia and China), as well as the extent of this influence. It turned out that Americans can see the light at the end of the tunnel at the end of 2009, the Europeans- in early 2010, and we- in the best case in late 2010- early 2011. However, this forecast is approximate and will vary depending on the development of the world economy and the Ukraine, as well as used by the governments anti-crisis measures. Therefore, we will constantly review the situation in Ukraine and the world to know, in what we all light and what to expect in the near future.

+ UKRAINE EU EXPORTS + = + ECOLOGY BANKS

interviewed “Today” experts say that the situation in the EU economy as a whole is very similar to what happens in the U.S., only with some lag. The reason for the delay (that Europe is experiencing now, the U.S. experienced a 1-2 quarter ago) that the crisis started in America yet, the Old World and later, only picked up the trend and now ” repeating the mistakes of the Americans.” “In addition, the EU economy is heterogeneous. Its membership now includes the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which, in contrast to the more stable the “old” EU members, carry heavier crisis, “- said Alexander Shkurpat. According to the updated IMF forecast, the decline in GDP of the European Union in 2009 will be 4.2% (according to other estimates, the decline will be modest- 3.7-4.0 %). It is expected that the EU anti-crisis measures also support the weak economy. The German Government, for example, planned 480 billion euros to support the banking system, though, seems to recognize that they suffer the fate of previously allocated 120 billion euros, which is not able to restore any mutual lending to banks or lending them the real economy. The only real advantage of the EU economy in comparison with the United States- the Europeans are not as deep as the Americans got into loans. “Plus the Old World- better than in the U.S., the ratio of income of the population to the level of its debt and high savings. Less- high dependence of the banking system of the EU on the situation in Central and Eastern Europe. Threat of default or landslide devaluations in several East European countries could cause enormous harm to both individual and the entire financial system and the economy of the EU “,- said Dmitry Moshkalo.

that the Germans DEATH… {7 Banking system}- truly one of the weaknesses of Europe. European banks are actively invested in securities of U.S. banks and mortgage agencies have pioneered “fall” due to problems with repayment mortgages ordinary Americans. As a result, banks have become Eurozone report their problems last year. Then their losses amounted to about $ 154 billion in 2009-2020. bank losses on bad assets (loans and investments in securities) will be about $ 750 billion

Such gloomy figures, it would seem, had to kill the financial system of Ukraine, in fact, experts estimate that about 40-45 % of our banking system owned banks in the EU and Russia. But only saves our banks… their underdevelopment. Due to the fact that the Ukrainians still keep most of the savings under the mattress, our banks have not been able to develop powerful financial institutions of the same level of Russian and Eastern European financial institutions.

of the EU ‘s economic recovery, which is expected in early 2010, will affect Ukraine is much more than positive news from the U.S.. The fact that the Ukrainian trade with the EU is much more than with the United States : in January- February European countries accounted for 28 % of Ukrainian exports (recall that the United States- 0.5%). However, positive European influence we feel delayed. ” The economic recovery of the EU and Russia, which are among the main trading partners of Ukraine, will allow to recover in 2011, exports of goods from our country up to $ 7-8 billion / month. For comparison, during the six months from August 2008 to February 2009 this figure had fallen to about $ 10 billion to $ 3 billion, “- says Nikolay Ivchenko. Hinder this process can take a lot of European countries to further increase the rate of environmentally friendly production, and further implementation of energy-saving technologies. ” In Germany there are tax incentives for new cars with environmentally friendly engines. In Sweden, expanding programs related to renewable energy. We in this matter are far behind, so our products can continue to be displaced from Europe “- warns Basil Jurchishin. Podsobil us except that European financiers : while banks with Ukrainian capital will seek support from the state, parent financial institutions support their Ukrainian “daughter.”

+ UKRAINE RUSSIA long haul =

Russia even during the crisis manages to show the excess of exports over imports volumes, though with a tendency to reduce this difference : $ 18-19 billion in May and August 2008, and $ 6.5 billion in January-February 2009. The point, of course, oil and gas, which is rich in our neighbor. However, experts say that to keep the neighbor is long. ” Russia’s GDP in the 1st quarter of 2009 dropped by 9.5 %, and may start to fall more towards the end of the year. The fact that in January-March, Russian energy companies selling energy at the old high prices. That is a drop of 9.5% reflects a reduction in energy exports, and by the end of the year and will grow even drop by lowering their prices, “- said Alexander Shkurpat. This may worsen the situation : in order to maintain the ruble Russian Central Bank has spent 36% of foreign exchange reserves, a few months, unemployment rose from 6 to 8.5% and industrial production, according to experts, with the fall of 2008 decreased to the level of crisis 1998- th.

it is interesting that Russia has adopted an anti-crisis program- under Obama’s plan to become the United States. “The essence of 55 points is limited to providing state support to priority sectors of the economy, including banking, agriculture, housing, defense, transport and resource centers, as well as small businesses,”- said Nikolay Ivchenko. However, economists believe that the short program and envisages no major reform of the economy. Moreover, its implementation requires a large number of laws that in the context of the Russian bureaucracy is very difficult. Also, experts are skeptical about the idea of using state reserves for consumer needs and support the ruble, which has already spent more than $ 200 billion so that the impact of anti-crisis program Russia a big question. ” The Russian economy is too dependent on oil and gas, it is non-competitive. But rigid vertical of power does not fall very quickly the economy “,- said Vitaly Shapran. ” If the U.S. and Western Europe has already reached the” bottom “, the Russian economy has come to this only in early 2010. And it will be painful and fraught with heavy losses, both for the economy and for the people “- said Alexey Weger. For example, the IMF expects unemployment in Russia by the end of 2009 to reach 8.9 %, and in 2010 will rise to 10.1%. However, according to IMF forecasts, in 2010 the Russian economy can begin to recover and show 0.5% annual GDP growth.

Russia more than other countries, affects the Ukraine. First of all, because our northern neighbor is our largest trading p
artner- in him alone accounts for 19 % of Ukrainian exports (data for January- February 2009). It is because of the reduction in consumption of Ukrainian goods to Russia and the EU, Ukrainian exports seriously reduced- from about $ 10 billion a month in the summer of last year to $ 3 billion- in February 2009

The salvation of Ukraine will be an economic recovery in Russia 2010-2011,. during which the demand for Ukrainian products will gradually return to their previous level. ” Trade with Russia, despite periodic opposition and trade wars will continue. Ukraine this familiarity will help our products for the Russian market, which is ready in the future to acquire lower quality but cheaper Ukrainian goods “,- said Vasily Yurchishin.

+ UKRAINE USA = RATE AND EXPORT

Homeland global economic crisis (which is in the United States in 2007 began the first manifestations of the crisis) today, we can say on the rise. In particular, it is expected that for the first time since the end of 2007, one of the key economic indicators- gross domestic product (GDP)- slow down the pace of decline. ” The maximum drop in GDP in the U.S. was in the 4th quarter of 2008- 6.3%. In the 1st quarter of this year, according to experts, the fall of the U.S. GDP is 5.8%, “- explained Nikolay Ivchenko. According to experts, it is expected that at the end of this year, U.S. GDP will show a positive trend. Moreover, unexpectedly showed a profit for the quarter troubled banks : Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase u0026 Co. On such positive news began to grow and the U.S. stock market- March stock index again began to show growth. However, we interviewed experts recommend not to overestimate the situation. ” The U.S. economy showed mixed signals : growth in home sales and also an increase in unemployment and a fall in industrial production, income or number of problem banks amid growing share of problem loans. All this suggests the completion of a U.S. recession, “- said Alexander Shkurpat.

Useless but refine . Another argument in favor of the deterioration of the situation in the U.S.- low efficiency of anti-crisis measures of the U.S. government. Barack Obama’s plan provides for the allocation of the budget of about $ 900 billion to fight the massive layoffs and bankruptcies, the creation of 2 years to 4 million new jobs, a number of tax benefits and subsidies. ” And to invest in social projects that stimulate consumer demand, it is still trying to fill a bottomless pit “,- says Nikolay Ivchenko. According to the expert, did not bring the expected effect and already implemented anti-crisis measures- the funds allocated in most cases easy to spend and about any stimulation of production were not discussed. But, despite the failure of a significant part of anti-crisis measures, experts believe that America will overcome the crisis first. The reason for this opinion is the economic dominance of States and the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, which will long maintain its exchange rate against foreign currencies at a decent level. Therefore, international analysts argue that the rise in unemployment has slowed down at the end of the 2nd quarter of this year, the real estate market starts to revive in the 2nd half of the year, and since the end of 2009 in the United States can begin even minimal but economic growth.

Expect flame growth immediately after the United States spread to Ukraine, it is not necessary. Direct impact of the current state of the U.S. economy to us is limited. The fact that the volume of trade between countries is very modest- in January- February 2009 the U.S. accounted for only 0.5% of total Ukrainian exports (in 2008- 2.9 %). ” U.S. influence on the Ukrainian economy remotely, through demand for the metal,”- says Vitaly Shapran. That is, Ukraine will receive a positive stabilization of the U.S. economy, only received orders for products metallurgy from other countries, which will catch the trend of economic growth. “Recovery of world trade depends primarily on the U.S. economic recovery as the flagship of global demand “- confirmed Nikolay Ivchenko. Definite influence on Ukraine will stabilize the financial sector and the U.S. : it will lead to the emergence of trust between the participants of the global financial market and re-open the possibility of our banks to raise money abroad.

is important for Ukraine and influence of the U.S. as a country whose currency has status of the world a means of payment. Any developments in the U.S. economy and politics affect the dollar to other currencies, which immediately becomes apparent to us. However, recently our National Bank has fixed dollar at 8.0-8.2 UAH. / $, And intends to keep it in such a framework further. Therefore, global currency fluctuations recorded only on the euro : positive news from the U.S. and the negative of the EU immediately lowered rate hryvnia / euro, and vice versa, the bad news from the New World from the Old and good to make the euro more expensive hryvnia.

UKRAINE : THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

what is happening now in Ukraine- the calm before the second series of storms. Having survived the first round of crisis, Ukraine has faced a sharp decline in production volumes, capital outflows (December- February, he made ??about $ 2 billion) and the deterioration of the balance of payments (negative balance amounted to more than $ 4 billion). However, in March-April lull. People have stopped to buy foreign currency, fewer make their savings from banks (March outflow of retail deposits amounted to only 2% compared to 5.1 %- in February) and even started buying housing (increased demand for inexpensive 1-2- bedroom apartments). But rejoice early. ” In the 3rd quarter is expected seasonal decline in business activity “- warns Alexander Shkurpat. According to the expert, this recession Ukrainian companies will conduct the next stage of cost optimization, triggering a rise in unemployment and real income. Despite the unfavorable forecasts, experts expect that by the end of the year, the Ukrainian economy again demonstrate positive trends. It will happen on the background of the international positive. ” The sequence of recovery will be about the. First, the U.S.- they first entered the crisis and come out of it first. Then- Europe. U.S. and EU generate demand, which begin to work developing economies- China first, and then other countries in Asia and Latin America. Only after that Ukrainian goods can win a niche, “- said Vasily Yurchishin. More accurate chronology also prompted experts: economy and financial sector in the U.S. will stabilize by the end of 2009, Europe- in the 1st half of 2010, and Ukraine at the end of the 2010-2011 year.

{Our experts 6}

Alex Weger, director of the financial group “Consulting and Investment”

Alexander Shkurpat, financial analyst of investment company Astrum Investment Management

Dmitry Moshkalo, vice president of Foyil Asset Management Ukraine

Basil Yurchishin, director of economic programs Razumkov Center

Vitaly Shapran, deputy director of rating agency ” Expert Rating “, member of the Ukrainian society of Financial Analysts

Nikolay Ivchenko, head of information- analytical center ” Forex Club ”

Source: Today