World egg stir

” in 2010. Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that the Russians had nothing to fear crisis. Fear I had before and now fear it is too late. ” Internet is filled with sly jokes like, the authors of which, apparently, are employees of companies that have gradually lost work, but who have not yet received notice of dismissal. You can continue to make jokes, but do not want. Because it seems to me, can laugh at anything- scary or ugly, ugly or arrogant, but- you know. But what concerns the financial crisis, our citizens perceived as something far away…

Well, how far from Odessa janitor London Stock Exchange. Or, at best, as a temporary nuisance, due to a neurotic, bought up all the currency in the banks..

Yeah, we saw something of the faint of heart, as in 2004 they also fled before the election to withdraw deposits in banks, and then after operational Arseny Yatsenyuk returned them back, ashamed of their own cowardice.

The panic is over, and everything will be as before. Wages will gradually rise, the prices too, but this trouble we have become accustomed and will habitually for this power to abuse. Banks this month come to life again and start issuing loans for apartments, cars, microwaves and mobile phones. Once again, nothing will change. After all, we have long been nothing changes, no matter who it is in power. Like this ?

There is one piece of news, and it’s bad. Old world is gone. Of course, there was no change of worlds for one night or morning as it was September 11, 2001. Actually, sorry, that it did not get it in one day. Old world goes slowly, but hard as long and painfully dying from cancer patient. New just born- slowly and painfully.

And Ukraine is a part of this world, as if the Prime Minister nor reassured people that our country is not integrated into the global financial system and it is not threatened.

Apparently, the counselors did not explain just Yuliya Tymoshenko did not face this crisis can only shepherd in the Mongolian steppe.

The crisis can not threaten the country, the private sector which nazanimal foreign currency loans in the amount of 35% of GDP (assessment agency S u0026 P).

which have current account deficits in the U.S. for the first half of 2008 increased by six times- up to 7 % of GDP and this figure is constantly growing.

at which payments on current account and external debt over the next 12 months and a half times higher than the gold reserves (according to the same agency).

in which only the first eight months of this year, the trade deficit- 12.5 billion. of $

which have about 40% of the banking system owned by foreign capital.

Finally, metallurgy which focused mainly on exports, is a major employer and contributor at least local budgets and pension fund.

and the world economy itself is in a state of long-term and severe financial crisis, which seems to go into a recession. And this- the recession. For reference, ” a long-term crisis and recession ” does not mean two months, and years.

During the crisis has hit institutions, considered eternal pillars of the global market. Ceased to exist investment banks. Several times decrease in the value of assets of the largest companies of the world business.

First the stock, then the financial and macroeconomic crisis now turn over the global economy. When this will write a book, the chronology of his will, of course, with the American program “First House”, which was invented by the U.S. administration for the resettlement of immigrants and the poor.

These layers were given deliberately bad loans, which are then released under the securities paper, which are then launched into circulation, mixed problem with neproblemnymi etc.

But now it does not matter where it all began. Becoming more popular point of view, according to which the global financial system would collapse anyway- if not from the mortgage crisis in the United States from another jolt. And, because the causes of the global crisis are not fully subject of this article (write about it every day all over the world), refer only to the opinion of the former deputy U.S. Treasury Paul Craig Roberts.

In his view, the problem is that the amount of debt in the world have greatly exceeded the value of property. ” Fiat money, partial redundancy banking, credit card debt, as well as various forms of leverage for investment led to the fact that the virtual financial assets exceeded their underlying real assets. The result is a situation where the debt was more than property. ”

Another global factor referred increasingly- money no longer reflect the real and not virtual value of goods, services, and business entities. {2

} What does this mean ? Suppose Company A places its securities on the stock exchange and the starting price of approximately corresponds to a real value of the company, which formed the basis of the value of its assets, the level of its profits, market position, etc.

Then it securities begin to live your life, fall and grow based on market conditions demand, which can be both objective (related to expectation, for example, high profits) and subjective- artificially created hedge funds or the company itself.

Fluctuations capitalization are then used to obtain loans, selling bonds and other market instruments. This also applies for inflating turnover, which, in turn, is able to attract new money, and eventually cost the company no longer has anything to do with reality. And such cases in the world was a lot. Too much.

We too quickly accepted as truth postulate- “every thing is worth as much as it can pay for.” This is a quote from the famous Little Jack London story ” Egg stir.” If you remember, Charlie Raging still had to pay $ 10 per egg for his beloved Miss Lucille Erol, although red price was exactly him two dollars.

However, eggs, as it turned out, were rotten, ” egg trust” burst, Smoke and Kid lost on operations 16,000 dollars and vowed to no longer engage in fraud for the purpose of getting rich in a jiffy.

***

Fire, as it is known, You can put out two ways- water and air termination access to its source. In the world of fire extinguish with water, providing maximum access to the liquidity of banks or, more simply, money. World unblock stalled interbank lending. States poured money into the banking system nalogoplatelshikov, on the one hand, allowing the system to somehow work the other- spreading the crisis on public finances and the macroeconomy. The total volume of resources allocated to it in the world reached $ 3 trillion. to $

In Ukraine National Bank chose to close the lid, making it difficult to maximize leaching funds from banks. Making this kind of picture. As short-term measures of fire means permissible. But as rightly said the head of the NBU Council Poroshenko, causes of the crisis are not only and not so much in the banking sector.

to write off all Ukrainian problems only to the global crisis is not necessary, it is not the whole truth. Obviously, in the country in recent years have created significant disparities. It is primarily about abuse of consumption.

in the country grew salaries of state employees, but did not grow productivity. The country has huge rates (64% per year) increased lending, despite the growing number of troubled borrowers. It got to the fact that banks have pledged credit default at 30%, while lending was still profitable for them. As a result, in 2007 the volume of loans reached nearly $ 11 billion

Due to the influx of unearned money in the country the prices for goods and services intended for the middle- citizens and for the rich.

She grew up in price real estate, mortgage stranded as a result of a small Kiev apartment price has r
eached the level of the average home price in the UK. Unrealistic prices for apartments, in turn, allowed banks to overestimate pledge borrowers. Even in the summer when analyzing the loan portfolio in one bank auditors asked the question: ” And on what basis you rate apartment on the street. Yaroslav Val in the $ 1.5 million ? “” We read the newspaper ” Aviso “,- answered them in the bank.

In the country as a whole was not generated domestic market and import growth is washed out of the country’s money. And it really is not the problem banks. Yes, they had a hand in the modern crisis, but not only and not so much they are. To him involved and large owners of enterprises, including MMC corrupted growth in 2007 metal prices and a modernized enterprise, is still oriented for export.

By that involved government, while lifting enjoyed electoral success and not engaged in the creation of the internal market.

to this involved major political forces in general, destroyed the political stability and ensure we are living from one election to a mandatory distribution of wealth.

As a result of the global recession hit Ukraine is much harder than many other countries. Soften the blow somehow can the IMF from which Ukraine, according to unofficial data, wants to get to 9 billion dollars when it should be remembered that like us, the IMF deal.

* **

The strange thing is happening in our part of informing the public about what is happening and will happen in the economy. Bankers different levels of daily sing lullabies, telling people that despite some problemki, ” otherwise, beautiful marquise, all is well.”

Yes, all of them really need to avoid attacks on deposits. ” Rumor has it that tomorrow lost eggs. Everyone ran to buy eggs, and they’re gone now, “- said in 1985 Mikhail Zhvanetskiy.

It is clear that the panic is capable of killing any banking system, and how it is less, the better for everyone. But it seems, the people deserve to talk to him honestly. Least because deceiving now, these and subsequent power for a long time will not achieve people’s confidence in himself and the banking system. After all, trust is earned over the years and can be lost in a matter of months.

No, do not predict a disaster- it will be just as dishonest. Nobody in the country and in the world, now is not able to predict the future course of events professionally enough, though, because ever since the crisis of this magnitude does not come across. But it is necessary to make clear that the world has changed. We must all learn to live within our means- as the country as a whole, and each person individually.

The country as a whole needs to stop cheating economic laws and not pay unearned money, then withdrawing them from the population unrealistic prices. {2

} Banks must admit that they have evolved from financial intermediaries in the de facto emission centers.

of each individual must carefully weigh all your income and expenses, give up, from which we can not refuse.

Those who have no savings, lose less. But if you have no savings, it is necessary to hold on to sources of income as possible, because the reduction is around the corner and you have to be very necessary to your employer.

Those who have savings, should realize that the crisis- not the time multiply the state, and the time to keep it.

and all of us should not panicking and not enticed to understand- hard times ahead.

***

in the meantime, the leaders of our country recklessly and enthusiastically seize the courts, trying to assign it, then cancel, then postpone the elections.

and NSDC priority decides on the allocation of funds from the reserve fund for the elections, and only secondarily turn discusses how this country survive when the world economy falls.

in Kiev go different people, going into voluntary societies such as the Council of the Verkhovna Rada and debating what to do next.

{3 oligarchs} go on offices of the president and the prime minister and try to solve the problems of their enterprises. I can understand them- everyone can be saved as.

Nothing makes only the state and the government in general. Let us say frankly- whether due to a misunderstanding, whether because of ignorance or because of complete irresponsibility of the authorities do not pursue their duties. Her duty was to direct- to attend to this problem at least in the beginning of September. And not just to attend, and to establish working groups at least to monitor the situation in the world, the actions of governments and central banks, to find in these actions for Ukraine rational ideas, offer them the country’s leadership, which, in turn, had to act.

And we have someone concerned about the problem to prevent the Prime Minister for the presidential election, someone tries to omit even lower rating of the president, someone waits until they destroy each other to this wave to return to the office of the Prime Minister.

But even there hitch. If they are so concerned about their political prospects, but now they do not have to think about how to get around the turn competitor and take power, but they do not appear in the guidance office in the next year! The notion that the prime minister, as the most prominent and effective, has a magical influence on the electorate, should be forgotten. Provides. During growth, and not fall.

And whoever he explained that the recession (drop) provides, inter alia, the reduction of public spending, including freezing the growth of wages and pensions ?

A if you still want to bring happiness to people with money, it will lead only to the issue and sharp, but not as it is now, the devaluation of the currency.

Or someone thinks that he will introduce a command economy and say prices “stand” ? Maybe. But then return the goods shortage, “black market” and all the charm of the early ’90s.

Of course, each of the competing parties can bravely jump into the breach on the principles of “In politics, winning bold and desperate ” and ” we are not afraid difficulties they harden us. ” Worthy of respect. But before you rush, you should at least indicate the scale of the problem and to understand what kind of difficulties that we ” are not afraid.”

The following year, the country needs is really a crisis manager. Not those who create a storm in a glass of water to drown him in a political rival, but the real crisis management. People who claim to leadership of the country in 2009, should be clearly understood that they his political career at least strongly spoil, and at best- complete. But do at this time, without which the existence of an independent Ukraine is impossible. You’re a little bit- to find them.

Author: Alexander Makarov

Source: Mirror of the Week